Forex Weekly Outlook For 15th-19th April

A Busy week ahead with U.S economic releases, with updates due on the housing market, retail sales, industrial production and trade which will give investors fresh insights into the health of the broader economy.

A number of Fed speakers are also on the docket, including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

China is to release what will be closely watched economic data, including a look at first quarter growth on Wednesday, after a flurry of soft data from the world’s second largest economy spooked investors earlier this year.

It will also be a holiday shortened week, with most major financial markets closed on Friday for the start of the Easter holidays.

USD slid to its lowest level in two weeks against the Euro on Friday as risk appetite was boosted by signs of economic stabilisation in China and a strong start to U.S. corporate earnings season.

Chinese data showed exports rebounded last month, helping offset weaker imports, and reports of another reduction in Germany’s growth forecasts, analysts said.

Data from Europe was encouraging, with euro zone industrial output declining by less than expected in February.

“It’s a party-like atmosphere for markets. Good news from China and U.S. earnings off to an auspicious start,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.

“This has safe-havens on their back foot, that’s why the dollar is under performing,” he said.

Against the Japanese yen, which tends to benefit during geopolitical or financial stress as Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation, the USD rose 0.34%.

AUD , which is sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment, was up 0.69%.

The British pound pushed higher against the greenback as traders were encouraged by the immediate risks around Brexit being pushed back by this week’s delay to the exit date. GBP was up 0.19% at $1.3077.

The pound was weaker against the firmer Euro, with the single currency up 0.23% to 1.1584 in late trade.

ING analysts said they expect sterling to fall over the next few months, in part because a Conservative party leadership battle could result in a hard line euro sceptic prime minister, and also because the six-month Brexit delay was too short for the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy.

The “partial clean-up of the GBP short positioning (and some built-up of new speculative longs) since the beginning of the year can also add to the reversal as GBP positioning is no longer meaningfully skewed one way,” the analysts wrote.

The Dutch bank predicts sterling will test levels of 1.1363 per euro and $1.27.

A list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 15

The Bank of Canada is to publish its business outlook survey.

Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren are on the docket to speak.


Tuesday, April 16

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting.

The U.K. is to release its employment report.

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on German economic sentiment.

Canada is to release data on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to report on industrial production.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is to speak.


Wednesday, April 17

New Zealand is to publish inflation data.

China is to release figures on first quarter growth along with data on fixed asset investment and industrial production.

The U.K. is to report on inflation.

Canada is to produce data on trade and inflation.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in Paris.

The Fed is to publish its Beige Book.

Philly Fed President Patrick Harker and St. Louis Fed head James Bullard are to speak.


Thursday, April 18

Australia is to publish its jobs report.

The euro zone is to release data on private sector activity.

The U.K. is to release data on retail sales.

Canada and the U.S. are both to publish figures on retail sales and the U.S. is also to release the Philly Fed manufacturing index and the weekly report on jobless claims.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is to speak.


Friday, April 19

Financial markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the U.S. will be closed for the start of the Easter holidays.

The U.S. is to publish data on building permits and housing starts.