Stronger Pound Reflects City’s Relief At Receding No-Deal Brexit

The pound jumped to a fresh 10-month high on Wednesday after it became obvious that Britain will avoid crashing out of the EU without a deal. Obvious, that is, to City traders, who have always bet that a deal is the most likely outcome of the Brexit talks and now believe it to be a racing certainty.

GBPUSD burst through $1.33 against the dollar for the first time since last July, a date seared on the memories of those obsessed with Brexit as the month when Theresa May outlined her Chequers plan, prompting Brexit secretary David Davis and foreign secretary Boris Johnson to resign.

The City is less sure about the potential for May’s plan to succeed, which is why there are good odds in bank dealing rooms for a delay leading to a better deal or second referendum. Not that a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all is necessary to cheer the City. Bankers, like most large businesses, would reluctantly support Theresa May’s deal.

The City was one of the “critical concerns” that regulators and politicians put at the front of the queue. Let’s hope it means banks won’t be too shocked should a deal prove elusive and most businesses are forced to jump out of the EU plane without a parachute.

Guardian news contributed to this article


Forex Update

GBP/USD jumped to a four-week high on Tuesday in Asia following a Bloomberg report that said British Prime Minister Theresa May was considering delaying a deadline on Brexit.

Citing people familiar with the situation, the report said May is expected to allow her cabinet to discuss extending the deadline beyond March 29 at meeting on Tuesday.

The pound strengthened following the news as it gives more time to May to prepare a strategy to stop the U.K. leaving the European Union with no deal next month.

The GBP/USD pair last traded at 1.3138 in early morning trading, up 0.3%. The pair rose to a four-week peak of 1.3153 earlier in the day, its four-week peak.

Meanwhile, reports that U.S. President Donald Trump raised the prospect to sign a trade deal with China failed to lift the yuan.

Trump said the two sides “are going to have a signing summit” and that they are “getting very very close,” although he cautioned it is possible that the deal “might not happen at all.”

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.6952 vs the previous day’s fix of 6.7131.

The yuan received some support on Monday following Trump’s decision to extend a tariff deadline of Chinese goods.

Former Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen made headlines as she said Trump does not understand the central bank.

“I doubt that he would even be able to say that the Fed’s goals are maximum employment and price stability, which is the goals that Congress have assigned to the Fed,” she said in an interview with American Public Media’s “Marketplace” program, published on Monday.

“He’s made comments about the Fed having an exchange rate objective in order to support his trade plans, or possibly targeting the U.S. balance of trade,” she said. “Comments like that show a lack of understanding of the impact of the Fed on the economy, and appropriate policy goals.”

Looking ahead, focus on a set of data due in the second half of the week for more hints on the health of the global economy, including manufacturing activity figures from China and the U.S. and revised U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures.

Various media also contributed to this article.


PM To Rule Out No-Deal Brexit Today.

British Prime Minister Theresa May will on Tuesday propose formally ruling out a no-deal Brexit in a bid to avoid a rebellion by lawmakers who are threatening to grab control of the divorce process.

May on Tuesday will propose to her cabinet of senior ministers that she formally rules out a no-deal Brexit, opening the door to a delay of weeks or months to the March 29 exit date.

As the United Kingdom’s labyrinthine Brexit crisis goes down to the wire, May is making a last-ditch effort to get changes to the separation package but lawmakers will try on Wednesday to impose their authority in a series of parliamentary votes.

After the British parliament voted 432-202 against her deal in January, the worst defeat for a government in modern British history, May has tried to use the threat of a potentially disorderly no-deal Brexit to get concessions out of the EU.

But many British lawmakers and some of her own ministers have warned they will try to take steps to avoid thrusting the world’s fifth largest economy into a potentially tumultuous economic crisis.

May is ready to rule out a no-deal Brexit after as many as 15 ministers said they were ready to resign.

A Downing Street spokesman declined to comment on the reports.

Reuters News and various media also contributed to this article.


Forex- Weekly Economic Calendar Feb 25th- 1st March

Monday, February 25

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in London.

Fed Governor Richard Clarinda is to speak in Texas.

Tuesday, February 26

BoE Governor Mark Carney and several other policymakers are to testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts as well as a report on consumer confidence.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to testify on the semiannual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington.

Wednesday, February 27

New Zealand is to publish trade figures.

Canada is to release data on consumer price inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to testify on the central bank’s monetary policy report for a second day Washington.

The U.S. is also to produce data on pending home sales and factory orders.

Thursday, February 28

New Zealand is to publish data on business confidence.

Australia is to release figures on private capital expenditure.

China is to produce figures on manufacturing and non-manufacturing data.

Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation.

Canada is to report on raw material price inflation.

The U.S. is to release an advance estimate of fourth quarter growth, along with the weekly report on jobless claims and data on business activity in the Chicago area.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak at an event in New York.

Friday, March 1

China is to publish its Caixin PMI.

The euro area is to publish revised figures on manufacturing activity as well as preliminary data on consumer inflation and unemployment figures.

The U.K. is to publish its manufacturing PMI.

Canada is to report figures on GDP growth.

The U.S. is to release data on personal income and spending along with the core PCE price index. The Institute of Supply Management is to round up the week with its manufacturing index.


GBP Rallies Upon Talk UK Government Considering Brexit Delay

Sterling gained on Monday following the British government considering a delay to Brexit if Prime Minister Theresa May fails to secure support in parliament for her withdrawal agreement.

Britain’s Brexit crisis is going down to the wire as May struggles to get the changes she needs from the EU to get her deal passed by a divided parliament forcing a potential delay to the Brexit date.

GBP has gained 2 percent over the last seven trading sessions with investors seeing the chances of a disorderly no-deal exit decreasing. Great focus is now placed on Wednesday’s parliament votes on Brexit amendments.

Opposition Labour Party lawmaker Yvette Cooper’s amendment seeks to prevent a no-deal Brexit and may be passed as three government ministers have added their support.

“I expect GBP appreciation if May loses the ability to put pressure on MPs  by threatening a no-deal scenario,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX research at Commerzbank.

The pound on Monday rose as high as $1.3099, up 0.3 percent on the day. Against the euro sterling was also ahead, rising 0.1 percent to 1.1534.

Britain’s government is considering different options, including possibly delaying Brexit, if parliament fails to approve May’s deal by March 12. Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29.

The EU has said it will consider an extension to the Brexit process, but only if Britain can offer evidence that such a delay would break the deadlock in parliament.

Various media contributed also to this article.


Purplebricks ‘Could Now Merge With High Street Business’, Forecasts Proptech Expert

The world-leading authority on property and technology yesterday forecast that in the UK, Purplebricks could now merge with a traditional business and have high street branches.

Professor Andrew Baum, of the Said Business School at the University of Oxford, said: “When a business has raised a lot of money and is burning through it very quickly, it commonly looks to merge with a traditional model.

“In the case of Purplebricks, that would not surprise me in the least.”

Baum was the author of Proptech 3.0: The Future of Real Estate two years ago, in which he castigated Purplebricks for having an ‘unadventurous’ and ‘shockingly simple’ business model.

Yesterday afternoon he said that he had not changed his mind since those early criticisms.

He said: “Right from the start, I didn’t think Purplebricks’ technology was particularly innovative, and its business model was really only built on cutting out the overhead of offices.

“However, the phenomenon of banks having no branches and estate agents having no branches has placed both in danger of becoming extremely unpopular.”

Baum, who currently leads an initiative called the Future of Real Estate Technology, said: “Purplebricks’ growth estimates were entirely based on denting the business of high street agents – but that has not really happened.”

Yesterday, Purplebricks was at pains to say that its latest forecasts had been hit by lower than expected revenues in its Australian and US businesses, but that its UK business was doing well.

However, Baum said he was sceptical of this: “Every agent in the UK is struggling at the moment, and I would be surprised if Purplebricks were any different. The market is defined by low transactions and is pretty horrific.

“Purplebricks is a low-cost, low-touch business, where the model works well in a healthy, rising property market and where demand exceeds supply.”

He said that in markets characterised by falling demand, lower transactions and falling prices, the public does not want a commoditised product and turns to traditional models.

In the case of estate agency, sellers would express preference for high-touch, high-fee agents to get deals over the line.

He said, however, that there is still a place for online/hybrid models.

Baum said this would be at the lower end of the market, where properties are relatively uniform and sell for similar prices: “In this scenario, I completely understand why sellers would want to pay cheaper commission.”

His views on Purplebricks possibly merging with a traditional agency business have been echoed by other commentators, who suggest that Belvoir – with its strong, cash-generating lettings business – is the obvious choice.

Baum’s 2017 paper on proptech caused waves on publication and was the most downloaded Oxford Said report of the year. The professor holds global appointments, and was previously at the University of Reading and Henley Business School.


Some Conservative MPs Warn May

A group of Conservative lawmakers said on Friday they had warned Prime Minister Theresa May that they are ready to try to force a delay to Britain’s exit from the European Union to prevent a disorderly ‘no deal’ Brexit.

They could ultimately force the government to seek an extension to the Brexit negotiation period.

Britain is due to leave on March 29, May has failed to win the backing of parliament for her Brexit deal and is seeking concessions from Brussels on plans to avoid a return of border controls on the island of Ireland. 

Both May’s Conservatives and the main opposition Labour Party are formally committed to withdrawing Britain from the European Union in line with the results of a 2016 referendum. 

But both parties are internally split over how or even whether to do so, and no majority has so far emerged in parliament for any comprehensive Brexit strategy. 

May has promised that if she does not bring a revised deal back by Feb. 27, parliament will have an opportunity to vote on the next steps. Some lawmakers are expected to use that to try to wrest control of the process from the government.

“Some of our group just feel that they have been forced into no other option but to vote for some kind of delay or pause simply because they don’t want to see no deal,” said Conservative lawmaker Simon Hart, who heads the Brexit Delivery Group made up of both pro-EU and pro-Brexit Conservatives. 

“It is essential that (May) and others around her know precisely what the mood in the party is and where people’s frustrations lie,” he told Sky News. 

Hart said he and a colleague had written to May’s chief whip, or top enforcer in parliament, warning him that they believed some Conservative lawmakers were resolute on voting against any agreement, as they prefer a no deal exit. 

“If they think that by voting down the deal … they are going to end up with no deal they could be really disappointed. Actually what they are going to end up with is forcing their colleagues into taking a decision which could delay and ultimately kill Brexit,” he said.

Reuters news contributed to this article.


Profits warning from Purplebricks

Purplebricks has released a trading update this morning cutting group revenue and profit guidance and replacing divisional CEOs in both the UK and US, after short tenures.

Group revenue guidance for the 2018/2019 financial year is cut from £165m-175m to £130m-£140m.

Shares plunged in early trading to £1 before recovering to around 120p.

In the UK business, the company is expecting 15-20% revenue growth compared with last year. It said it also expects to maintain its 75% share of UK online instructions and for Purplebricks to be the clear market leader in its sector. This morning’s guidance says that the UK business is expected to achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin in double digits.

However, in both the US and Australia traction is lower than expected with consumers, and both businesses will fail to meet expectations this year.

In Australia, the housing market has suffered “a number of headwinds”, and Purplebricks has made “positive changes” in its model. However, revenue will not meet expectations.

In the US, Purplebricks said it is making better than expected progress, with a recent change in the business model to payment on completion. However, the board does not expect the amount of US revenue to be sufficient to meet its expectations in this financial year.

In Canada, the business has performed well and is on track to meet expectations.

In the statement, it says that Purplebricks as at the end of last month had £71m cash. However, in its interim results for the six months ending October 31 last year, it stated that net cash was £103m. This suggests the company has been burning cash at the rate of £10m per month.

This morning’s statement also said that Purplebricks’ UK CEO Lee Wainwright, appointed about a year ago, will shortly be leaving the business. It said the departure is for personal reasons.

Wainwright was with Countrywide for 26 years before joining Purplebricks in March 2017 as chief operations officer. He became CEO in January last year.

The American CEO Eric Eckardt is also leaving, after two years.

Group CEO and founder Michael Bruce is taking over as day-to-day leader of the US business with immediate effect.

In the UK Purplebricks group chief operating officer Vic Darvey takes over as CEO. He joined the business only in January from MoneySupermarket.

Purplebricks said: “Vic has extensive experience of leading strong tech-focused, customer-centric businesses and will play a key role in the future direction and next stage of growth for Purplebricks.”

Today’s statement said: “The board wishes to thank Lee and Eric for their contribution.”

Michael Bruce said: “Although there are macro and industry headwinds across markets we are well placed to capitalise on the significant opportunity for growth that exists in each country, albeit not entirely as we would have wanted before our year end.

“The UK is leading the way with continued profitable growth and a strategy to deliver greater success. I am also excited to be taking the reins of the US business.

“The team in Australia are building on the changes they implemented late last year and Canada is delivering on plan and expectations.

“The board remains confident of the long-term growth potential of the business and the opportunity to deliver substantial value for shareholders.”

City analyst William Packer, of Exane BNP Paribas, said: “Purplebricks’ disruptive model has grown rapidly in the UK in recent years and is now among the leading agents in the UK.

 


Crunch Time As May Lands In Brussels Again – No Breakthrough Expected – GBP Rallies On Positive UK Economy Data

This week has indicated that indeed there is world beyond Brexit in the currency markets.

The pound recovered some loses yesterday following some good news about the UK economy with wage growth, unemployment and productivity. GBP/EUR rallied to a level not seen for a month, despite news on closing car factories, this along with Monday morning’s news about a new political grouping ‘The Independent’ also supported GBP until lunchtime.

Brexit seems a big factor for people putting off everything right now: “wait until after 29 March”. Business decisions, retirement, holidays, home sales…

Prime Minister Theresa May makes another trip to Brussels today, hoping European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker may prove more yielding than of late to salvage her Brexit deal.

With Britain set to jolt out of the world’s biggest trading bloc in 37 days unless May can either persuade the British parliament or the European Union to budge, officials were cautious on the chances of a breakthrough.

The key sticking point is the so-called backstop, an insurance policy to prevent the return of extensive checks on the sensitive border between EU member Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland.

May agreed on the protocol with EU leaders in November but then saw it roundly rejected last month by UK lawmakers who said the government’s legal advice that it could tie Britain to EU rules indefinitely made the backstop unacceptable.

She has promised parliament to rework the treaty to try to put a time limit on the protocol or give Britain some other way of getting out of an arrangement which her critics say would leave the country “trapped” by the EU. A spokesman for May called the Brussels trip “significant” as part of a process of engagement to try to agree on the changes her government says parliament needs to pass the deal.

But an aide for Juncker quoted the Commission president as saying on Tuesday evening: “I have great respect for Theresa May for her courage and her assertiveness. We will have friendly talk tomorrow, but I don’t expect a breakthrough.”

EU sources aired frustration with Britain’s stance on Brexit, saying Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay brought no new proposals to the table when he was last in Brussels on Monday for talks with the bloc’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

On Tuesday, the EU responded to UK demands again: “The EU 27 will not reopen the withdrawal agreement; we cannot accept a time limit to the backstop or a unilateral exit clause,” said Margaritis Schinas, a spokesman for Juncker.

“We are listening and working with the UK government … for an orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU on March 29.” May’s spokesman again said it was the prime minister’s intention to persuade the EU to reopen the divorce deal. “There is a process of engagement going on. Tomorrow is obviously a significant meeting between the prime minister and President Juncker as part of that process,” he said

Various media sources contributed to this article.


Cities Index Report, December 2018 – UK Cities House Price Index From Zoopla

The 20-city index is currently registering annual house price inflation of 2.7%, half the average annual rate over the last 5 years. Growth has slowed steadily over 2018, with London, Cambridge and Aberdeen registering negative growth year on year.

Price growth ranges from up to +7% in Edinburgh to -6% in Aberdeen.

Ten cities have recorded double digit price growth of up to 16% since the Brexit vote in 2016, with Birmingham and Manchester leading the way.

To read full article…

https://advantage.zpg.co.uk/insights/reports/cities-index-report-December-2018?utm_source=zpg&utm_medium=trade-email&utm_campaign=cities-index


Disorderly Brexit Would Be shock To European Economy: ECB’s De Guindos- GBP Effect

A disorderly Brexit would deliver “a significant shock” to an already weakened European economy, European Central Bank vice-president Luis de Guindos told French daily Le Monde.

“A disorderly Brexit… would represent a significant macroeconomic shock at a time when the European economy is already weakened,” de Guindos said in an interview it published on Tuesday.

Reuters News Reports..

 

If a ‘NO Deal Brexit’ reached the Pound could fall by as much as 8% against the Dollar over the coming months some forecasters predict with some stating Sterling is now a “do not touch” kind of currency because a no deal Brexit is a possibility playing out in parliament.

Latest forecasts for the UK and Pound Sterling come after a week that saw the government defeated in parliament once again, which has stoked scepticism over whether the EU will provide concessions in the Brexit negotiations given the low level of domestic support commanded by the Prime Minister.

Prime Minister Theresa May asked the House of Commons last week to show symbolic support for her efforts to continue negotiating with the EU by voting with a majority to approve a non-binding motion setting out the path ahead, although it failed to secure the backing of enough MPs.

Unfortunately for Sterlng, the message analysts and economists have taken from last week’s events is that the EU will now be even less likely to offer concessions over the Northern Irish backstop because it’s not certain that even those would be enough to get the Withdrawal Agreement approved by parliament.

The current legal position is that if the EU Withdrawal Agreement is not ratified by parliament before March 29, 2019 then the UK will leave the EU and default to doing business with it on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms, which many economists say would be bad for growth.

Such an outcome could force the Pound-to-Dollar rate to decline by almost 8% to 1.19 during the coming months, which would mark its lowest since October 2016 and is a level that has rarely been seen before and until Brexit, was unheard of since the late 1980s.

Various media helped contribute to this report..


Another Parliament Defeat For May – GBPUSD Loses 1.5% Overnight- UK Retail Sales Bounce

 

Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a defeat on her Brexit strategy on Thursday that undermined her pledge to European Union leaders to get her divorce deal approved if they grant her In a show of muscle, hardline Brexit supporters in her Conservative Party decided to abstain, handing her an embarrassing, albeit symbolic, defeat as she tries to renegotiate her deal with the EU.

While it will not deter May from trying to secure changes on the most contentious issue of the deal – the Irish “backstop” – the vote does show that her pro-Brexit lawmakers are a major obstacle to passing any agreement.

May was absent from the House of Commons for the debate and the outcome of the vote, which deepened the sense of political crisis over Britain’s departure, more than two years after voters opted to leave the bloc by a margin of 52 percent to 48.

The crunch vote is now expected to come on Feb. 27, when May is due to return to parliament – and lawmakers who fear leaving without a deal could try to seize control of Britain’s departure from the EU.

British retail sales rebounded strongly in January as steep clothing discounts attracted wary shoppers, bucking a slowdown in consumer spending ahead of Brexit.

Compared with a year ago, retail sales were 4.2 percent higher in January, the biggest annual rise since December 2016 and again outstripping almost all forecasts in the poll.

Sterling edged a little higher against the dollar on the back of the figures but struggling to regain the 1.5% loss in GBPUSD inflicted following Teresa May losing the vote in Parliament last night.

RUNNING DOWN THE CLOCK ON BREXIT?

The pro-Brexit European Research Group (ERG), several dozen strong, had said they would defy May unless she dispelled their concern that she might after all baulk at a no-deal exit.

Ministers were keen to shrug off the defeat.

“The fact that ERG colleagues abstain is sending a message that they still want to find a way forward and find a solution,” said Robert Buckland, the solicitor general.

ERG members say ruling out a no-deal Brexit would not only weaken Britain’s negotiating hand but also remove what, for many, is the desired end-point: the cleanest possible break.

But some Conservative and many opposition lawmakers accuse May of “running down the clock”, edging Britain closer to the exit date to try to force parliament into a choice between backing her deal or leaving without an agreement.

A majority of lawmakers agree with businesses, which say that outcome would be catastrophic for the world’s fifth largest economy: causing delays at ports, fracturing crucial international supply chains and hindering investment.

Opposition Labour lawmaker Alison McGovern said it was time to stop the clock on Brexit.

“In any normal circumstances, this would be general election territory. It is clear that the prime minister cannot easily command a majority in the House of Commons, and that is central to our system.”

Reuters news contributed to this article.


Property Transactions Down As Annual House Price Growth Slows

Property transactions in England and Wales has fallen significantly, the latest data shows.

According to the ONS and Land Registry, sales in October, the most recent month for which there are statistics , fell in England to 66,599, compared with 77,047 the previous October. Sales were also down in Wales, from 4,471 to 3,911, but static in Scotland at just over 9,000.

In Northern Ireland, sales in the last quarter of last year fell to 5,736 compared with 6,784.

The ONS also reports that in December, the average UK price was £230,776, up 2.5% over the year, and 0.2% measured monthly. It is the lowest rate of annual house price growth since July 2013.

The ONS also reported on lettings, saying that private rents rose by 1% between January last year and last month.

In England, rent prices increased 1.1%. Excluding London, they were up 1.5%

Data From ONS and Land Registry


FOREX- U.S Dollar Set For Biggest Winning Streak In Two Years

The dollar held near 3-month highs against the euro on Thursday, benefiting from sustained strength in core U.S. inflation and weak data out of Europe.

The dollar was on track for its longest winning streak in two years on Tuesday, as hopes of a breakthrough in U.S-China trade talks and a tentative deal to avoid a U.S. government shutdown encouraged investors to cover short bets on the currency.

At the end of 2018, the dollar was the consensus short trade among hedge funds, as traders bet the U.S. Federal Reserve would pause in its rate increases and other major economies would grow quickly.
But while the Fed held interest rates steady last month, the case for buying the euro and the pound has weakened steadily. Economic data in Europe have deteriorated and Brexit concerns have dogged the British pound.

“It is remarkable for the dollar to post this kind of rising streak after a dovish Fed last month, and it shows how cautious investors are becoming over the outlook of the global economy,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at MUFG in London. The dollar has gained for nine consecutive sessions, its longest series of gains since February 2017, according to Refinitiv data. It was a touch higher at 97.063 on Tuesday.

On Jan. 30, the Fed said it would be “patient” before raising rates again and signalled its balance sheet would remain larger than previously expected.

Talks resumed in Beijing this week after an earlier round ended in Washington last week without a deal, and the top U.S. negotiator said a lot remained to be done.

In the U.S lawmakers reached a tentative agreement on border- security funding that might help avert another government shutdown, due to start on Saturday.

Reuters news contributed to this report


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Forex – Weekly Outlook

This week investors will get an update on U.S. inflation figures after the Federal Reserve said it will be patient as it considers whether to continue hiking interest rates.

Other U.S. economic reports due this week include consumer prices on Wednesday, producer prices and December retail sales figures on Thursday and industrial production on Friday. The retail sales report had been delayed by the temporary government shutdown.

Market watchers will also be following progress in U.S.- China trade talks, with meetings between officials from the two sides due to start in Beijing on Monday.

A 90-day trade truce between Washington and Beijing is due to expire on March 1. If the deadline passes without a deal, President Donald Trump has said he could follow through on his threat to increase tariffs on Chinese goods.

Meanwhile, Trump and congressional lawmakers have until Friday to agree on a budget deal to avert another partial shutdown of the federal government.

Trump has said he may declare a national emergency to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border if he cannot reach a deal with Democrats.

The dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Friday, ending its strongest week in nine months, as traders piled into the greenback in a safe-haven move on worries about a weakening global economy.

Anxieties about the global economy were compounded by comments from Trump indicating he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline to achieve a trade deal.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.13% at 96.41 late Friday. For the week, the index gained 1.17%, its biggest weekly increase since a 1.23% jump in the week of May 13, 2018.

Sterling was marginally lower, with GBP/USD at 1.2942 for its biggest weekly drop since October. Traders expect the pound to remain volatile because of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

The euro hovered at a two-week low, with EUR/USD at 1.1328. The single currency still posted its steepest weekly drop against the dollar in over four months in the wake of data that showed an economic slowdown in Europe was spreading.

“The rally that propelled the dollar broadly higher last year has enjoyed renewed life with U.S. growth remaining solid while peers abroad lose momentum,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.

Reuters contributed to this article


The Bank of England Cuts U.K Predicted Growth For 2019

The Bank of England looks set to trim its forecasts for Britain’s already sluggish growth on Thursday, reflecting the approach of a still uncertain Brexit in just 50 days’ time and a slowdown in many of the world’s big economies.

But the BoE is also likely to strike a contrasting note to the U.S. Federal Reserve by reminding investors that it still intends to raise interest rates, if Britain can avoid the shock of an abrupt no-deal departure from the European Union.

With a transition deal still not in the bag, the BoE’s rate-setters are expected to vote unanimously to keep their benchmark borrowing rate at 0.75 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

“The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is clearly in ‘wait and see’ mode,” Howard Archer, an economist with EY Item Club, a forecasting firm, said.

Prime Minister Theresa May is pushing for concessions from EU leaders on a key part of the divorce she agreed with them last year, maintaining the prospect of a no-deal Brexit on March 29. Even so it would be a big surprise if bank Governor Mark Carney and his colleagues change their message that they intend to resume raising rates once Britain has negotiated Brexit.

It also said it expected Britain’s economy would grow by 1.7 percent a year in 2019, 2020 and 2021, a forecast it might trim, given the signs of a global slowdown since then.

If Britain leaves the EU without a deal, the BoE has said it might raise rates due to the inflationary impact of a likely slump in the value of the pound, although most economists think it would cut them to cushion the blow to the economy.

Rueters Contributed To This Article


Corbyn Sets Out His Terms To May For Backing Brexit Following Meeting

British opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn met Prime Minister Theresa May last week and has written her a letter putting forward five demands by his Labour Party on the Brexit deal, his party said late on Wednesday.

In the letter made public on Wednesday, Corbyn said the Brexit deal must include a “permanent and comprehensive” UK-wide customs union, a close alignment with the single market, “unambiguous agreements” on future security arrangements, and commitments on UK participation in European Union (EU) agencies and funding programmes.

The Labour leader wrote that the above demands should be put into law before Britain leaves the EU.

Corbyn also reiterated that there must not be a return to a hard border in Northern Ireland, adding that all steps must be taken to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Last month, British lawmakers rejected May’s original deal that set out the terms by which Britain would exit the European Union. They voted to demand May seek changes to the treaty.

Britain is due to leave EU on March 29.

May is set to travel to Brussels on Thursday to tell EU leaders they must accept legally binding changes to the Irish border arrangements of the divorce deal or face the prospect of a disorderly no-deal Brexit.

London and Brussels are arguing over whether the Brexit deal clinched in November can be changed, raising the possibility of a delay to Brexit, a last-minute deal or a no-deal exit.

 

Rueters Contributed To This Article


UK builder Barratt working to ensure component supply after Brexit

Britain’s biggest housebuilder Barratt said it was liaising with its suppliers to ensure the smooth arrival of overseas components by boosting inventories and looking at alternative routes as it prepares for Brexit.

Barratt, which said on Wednesday its current trading is in line with expectations as it posted a 4 percent rise in first-half volumes, is one of several British companies preparing for possible disruption after Britain leaves the EU.

“We have worked with our suppliers on continuity of supply of non-UK manufactured components, including product specification reviews, their holding additional inventories and review of logistic routes to seek to mitigate the potential for disruption,” the company said.

Reuters News Contributed To This Report


Construction booming in regional UK cities – Deloitte

Construction activity in four regional cities in Britain is at a record high, including a flurry of building projects in Manchester, despite uncertainty about Brexit, accounting firm Deloitte said on Tuesday.

Deloitte said its Real Estate Crane Survey, covering Leeds, Birmingham, Manchester and Belfast, showed sustained or increased activity across sectors including offices, hotels, retail, education and student housing.

Manchester had 78 sites under construction — more than the U.S. cities of Seattle, Los Angeles and Chicago as measured by Deloitte’s North American Crane Index.

“To have construction figures this healthy is somewhat of a surprise given a myriad of market uncertainties,” Deloitte Real Estate partner and regional head Simon Bedford said.

The Deloitte survey struck a more upbeat note than the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index for the construction sector which on Monday showed the slowest growth in the industry in January since the winter weather of early 2018.

Bedford said big businesses were looking to build support operations in regional cities while small and medium-sized regional businesses were continuing to grow.

— Reuters contributed to this report


New Home Vs Old Home With Character From The Finer Group

Which is better old homes with tonnes of character and a comforting lived in quality or a fresh new build home? It’s a tough question to answer. Whilst many property experts argue that young renters and prospective buyers need new build homes because they suit their modern lifestyle, there are still just as many positives to buying an older, more established home. The only way to decide which one is right for you, is to weigh up which benefits suit you best.

Benefits of an old character home

  1. No long irritating snagging list (a list of defects and problems a builder gives when a new build home is finished) you’re buying a home that is likely up to scratch and so lived in that any minor or major problems will have been dealt with years (decades? centuries even!) ago.
  2. The property is likely to be found in an area with a well-established community and amenities.
  3. The garden will be mature, meaning there’s no recently-laid turf or new trees and plants growing.
  4. If you don’t like certain aspects of the house, you can knock down some walls, repaint and install your own idea of a home. This could potentially add value to your property.
  5. All the services: broadband, gas, electricity etc. will all be easy to re-establish from the previous owner.

Benefits of a new build home

  1. New homes are packed with lots more extra features than older properties. This could include the most efficient boiler, all the mod-cons in the kitchen and other excellent editions like solar power.
  2. New homebuilders will usually offer a range of different benefits (location, quality of amenities etc.) which is something the properties on the second hand market cannot hope to match.
  3. An efficient boiler and the possible addition of solar power means that new build homes are the most energy efficient on the market, which could save you thousands on gas, electricity and water.
  4. All quality new build homes come with a NHBC 10-year warranty, meaning you know you’ve got support if an undetected issue develops with the new building.
  5. The price of new builds are now more in line with those of the second-hand market which means there is a lot less of the ‘brand new’ premium.

There’s certainly no edge to either and it will likely come down to your own preferences and tastes when it comes to what you want your home to look like and contain. Either way it’s nice to know that both types have their own benefits.


The Return Of 100% Mortgage

For the first time since the recession the 100% mortgage has returned, although there not quite the same as they use to be before the financial crisis.

What is a 100% Mortgage?

A 100% mortgage allows buyers to purchase a home without the savings they’d usually need to get them started. A buyer could borrow 100% of the property purchase price and would not have to put any money down for a deposit.

So what’s the difference between a pre and post financial crisis 100% mortgage? In 2016 lenders are a lot more hesitant to offer 100% mortgages simply due to the high risk involved. In order to cater to this, buyers will now require a friend or family member to act as a guarantor.

Barclays is one of the few banks to offer this loan and their mortgage requires a family member or friend to deposit 10% in a savings account. This money will remain there for 3 years and act as security for the buyer if they fail to make the repayments or if there is a fall in house prices. Once the 3 years are up, this money can be withdrawn with interest.

But how do you know if this deal is for you?

The Pros

The biggest positive on the pro list is really quite simple, a 100% mortgage allows you to buy a home without having to save for a deposit which will be great news for some first time buyers out there.

100% mortgages also have some use for existing homeowners that may have been stung by a fall in house prices, leaving them in negative equity, as it would allow them to remortgage or even move home, preventing them from being stuck with extremely high rates of interest.

Also, if you’re a parent looking to help your kids get into their first home, this could be a more suitable option to just gifting them the deposit as the money will be returned with interest 3 years later.

The Cons

As you’d expect, 100% mortgages do come with a few drawbacks. These risks mainly fall on the guarantor as it will be their security savings that are affected if you can’t keep up with the repayments. Because of this it would be wise to find a family member that is willing to bare this potential burden.

100% mortgages are back but only in a very limited and specialised form. The list of banks offering this new deal isn’t very long, so your options on who to go with aren’t varied enough to really hunt for a great deal.

Finally, if the property market goes against you and house prices fall, there’s a chance that your mortgage will value more than your home, making the process of moving home in the future costly and much more difficult.

100% mortgages are clearly better suited for some more than others, but if you feel this type of loan could be beneficial to you then do some further investigating and find out if you’re eligible.


How Will Brexit Affect The property Market?

After over two and a half years of the U.K people deciding to leave the European Union debate and uncertainty continue in the run up to the last 50 days before March 29th. In the months leading up to the referendum there seemed to be a bit of a slowdown in property transactions as many seemed cautious, how will the UK property market fare?

In the run up to the vote there were many apocalyptic predictions on house prices falling drastically by as much as 18% if we decided to leave. However, since the referendum, predictions have been much more modest and seem to hover around the 5% mark.

The general consensus among property experts seems to be that it’s likely the property market will see a small decline in activity. Some vendors may decide to delay their decision as they wait and see what the effects are over the next few months. While this drop in activity is bound to have some effect on the market, the chances of the market collapsing on itself are still very slim.

Plenty of experts have thrown their opinions into the mix, with most claiming a short term shake up, but a relatively quick return to the norm and a strong outlook on the market long-term.

Spicerhaart, Chief Executive, Paul Smith was one of many that claims Britain’s property market will see long term stability, he stated “In the short-term, things could be turbulent as people come to terms with a result that wasn’t expected. But we now have some certainty. House prices may go up and down as they always have, but demand pressures will sustain prices over the long-term. We’re on course to see the greatest investment since the war, and residential property continue to pay off for home owners.”

There have been various predictions for the capital, with this being the region hit the hardest by falls in value and some expecting London to remain as it is. “The London market, as always, is likely to remain in its own impervious bubble despite the choice for Britain to leave. We’ve seen a few market wobbles since the results were announced, but they already seem to be starting to stabilise.”

Some industry experts have even suggested that we may see a short-term rise in activity, with the Brexit’s effect on the pound, the interest from overseas could grow, especially in areas such as London as stated by member of the National Association of Estate Agents, Jonathan Hudson “this exit vote could reignite interest from overseas buyers from Asia, who would see greater value back in the London market if the pound continues to weaken.”

So where does this leave you if you’re considering making a move? Well, that depends on the move you’re looking to make. Mortgage advisers and property experts have suggested that if you’re buying a long-term home and have already saved up a strong deposit, then you shouldn’t let the recent change hold you back from making a move. However, if you’re planning a buy to let purchase, it may be beneficial to see how things play out over the coming weeks.

Overall, predictions are mixed on exactly how the market will react to Brexit. With there being almost too many factors to take into consideration, it’s hard to say with any true certainty whether prices will rise or fall. However, one thing that is certain is that the market will go on, it does not change the fact that the demand for housing is as high as ever and there are always reasons why people need to buy and sell.

The Finer Group Team


Top Tips for Viewing A Property

When it comes to buying property it’s important that it’s done the right way. Not only will this be your home for many years, but it’s also an investment, so while you want the perfect place that fits your criteria, it’s also important to remember that this could be an asset you’ll look to sell in the future.

With this is mind, it’s essential that when you view potential properties you take the time to be thorough and get all the information you can.

To help make sure you don’t miss a thing and make the right choice when you do eventually make an offer, we’ve compiled the following list of tips to view a property like a pro.

Don’t rush
We understand that this could be the 20th house viewing you’ve been to in the last few weeks, but as said earlier, you could be living in this property for decades so don’t rush through this process. It’s vital that you spend close to 30 minutes exploring the property, asking questions and just getting a good sense of how the property feels. If you just wander from room to room, taking a few glances and only trying to spot glaring issues, there’s a good chance that you’ll miss the small issues that could eventually become big issues. Taking that little extra time will not only help you spot anything that needs fixing, but will also mean you’re much more informed when you come to make a formal offer for the property.

Take a good look at the structure
On first glance the property you’re viewing may seem quite solid structurally. However a closer look at the exterior or some of the walls may reveal potential problems. This is part of the viewing when it’s best to use your head and not your heart and treat this as an inspection of a building and not viewing of a home. Be on the lookout for hairline cracks, damp, broken tiles or guttering. If the current owner has made changes to the property such as an extension, make sure to do a double check in these areas to ensure their changes are structurally sound. If you do find any of the issues mentioned above, don’t be afraid to ask questions about how long it’s been that way or if the owner plans on fixing it.
Check all plumbing and electrics
A surprising amount of people forget to check these sort of things and just assume that everything Is in working order. Sadly, this is not always the case and the seller is not obligated to inform you of any issues. Be sure to check the water pressure by running the taps and the shower and test the lights and check the condition of the power sockets as you go from room to room. Don’t forget to ask plenty of questions regarding such things as the boiler or any wiring that may need to be replaced. Old and faulty plumbing and electrics is not only costly to replace but is also dangerous, so make sure you’re fully informed on the condition of it all.

Think about how much space there actually is.
When it comes to property space is one thing you can never have enough of. Whether you’re looking to fit in that Queen size bed or you need somewhere to store all of your precious knick knacks you’ve collected over the years, space is incredibly valuable. What you have to remember is that while it’s your job to find the faults, it’s the seller’s job to present the house in its best light. This means that they’ll do everything possible to make the room feel larger, whether that be using lots of natural lighting or in some cases removing pieces of furniture all together. You have to keep in mind the home is most likely a little more cluttered on a regular day and that your furniture could take up more room than the current owner. Think about how much room your items take up and then ask yourself if there is any room for expansion.

Take a walk through the area
When you’re buying a property you’re not just investing in that building, you’re also investing in the neighbourhood itself. If you’re first time buyers and looking to build a life in this new home, you have to ask whether the area is suitable for your family’s needs. Is there plenty of shops close by? Are you near a noisy main road? How do the local schools perform? How bad is the rush hour traffic? All of these are questions you need to ask yourself and investigate. It’s best to wander around the area for a short while in order to see how it all feels, after all, if you’re going to be here for some time, you need to feel comfortable.

Once you’ve taken a good look, take another and maybe another.
As we stated at the beginning, when it comes to buying property it’s best done the right way, but even when you do everything right, it’s always best to check things twice. No matter how thorough you intend to be there is always the possibility that you missed a couple of things the first time round. Most would advise visiting a property 2-3 times and at different times of the day if possible to see if you feel the same way each time. Buying a home can be very exciting and it’s easy to get carried away with it all, but it’s important to remain level headed, take a 2nd and 3rd look at it all and really analyse if this is the right investment for you.


Predicting House Prices for 2030

According to studies looking at the changes in property prices since the year 2000, if prices continue to rise at a similar pace to the previous 15 years, we could see England’s average house price jump above £450,000 by 2030.

This research was carried out by online agent eMoov as they used their data to apply the same 84% increase in prices since 2000, to all areas across the UK.

The results of these calculations showed average property prices of £457,433 but ranging from just under £280,000 to just over £3.4 million.

As expected, London would continue to be the most expensive region to live. Projections from the study show Barking and Dagenham as the cheapest of the London Boroughs with potential prices of £450,000 or higher, and areas such as Kensington and Chelsea potentially rising from £1.9 million to £3.4million.

In stark contrast to this, there are some areas throughout the UK that show average prices less than £280,000, such as Durham (£279,985), East Riding of Yorkshire (£277,411) and Merseyside (£275,074) with price projections roughly £175,000 lower than the England average.

This study also extended to Wales and suggested an increase to £307,712 and Scotland which would be the cheapest country to live in if predictions are correct at £297,222.

Founder of the company Russell Quirk said the reason for undertaking this research was to highlight “just how dangerous this current artificial inflation of the market could be in the long run” and also stated that “Although rising prices are always good news for current homeowners, it’s extremely worrying to look at the difficulty many have in getting on the ladder at the moment, let alone with a price jump of 84% by 2030.”

The prospect of a no deal Brexit is naturally concerning business’, investors and home owners across the U.K, but it still looks unlikely, despite the Parliamentary opposition to the deal Theresa May has agreed with Brussels. While a number of other outcomes are also possible, it is hard to see why or how the Government invokes a second referendum or general election. There may well be a political crisis or an extension to Article 50, but our base case is that, eventually, the deal will be approved, mainly because the only alternative is no deal. Nevertheless, the uncertainty will delay and complicate some investor and occupier decision making.

Whilst Brexit remains top of the political agenda it’s not the only theme that will impact the UK real estate market in 2019.  What with shifting workspace requirements, new technologies and structural changes having even more of a dramatic impact than in previous decades.


The Week Ahead From Finer Capital

The Week Ahead From Finer Capital

This week we get the chance to hear remarks by a number of Federal Reserve officials after the U.S. central bank caught markets off guard by putting plans for further rate hikes on hold and pledging to be “patient” on further moves.

Monday, February 4

Financial markets in China will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Australia is to release data on building approvals.

The U.K. is to publish survey data on construction sector activity.

The euro zone is to release figures on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to report on factory orders.

Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester is to speak.

 

Tuesday, February 5

Markets in China will remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Australia is to release data on trade and retail sales. In addition the Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its latest interest rate decision and publish a rate statement.

The U.K. is to release survey data on service sector activity.

The euro zone is to report on retail sales.

The Institute of Supply Management is to release data on non-manufacturing activity.

President Donald Trump will deliver the State of the Union address before Congress.

 

Wednesday, February 6

Markets in China will remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe is to speak at an event in Sydney.

In the euro area, Germany is to produce data on factory orders.

Canada is to publish data on building permits.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is to speak at an event in Washington.

 

Thursday, February 7

Markets in China will remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

New Zealand is to release its latest employment report.

Germany is to publish figures on industrial production.

The EU is to release its economic forecasts for the next six months.

The Bank of England is to announce its latest interest rate decision and publish a rate statement.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

 

Friday, February 8

Markets in China will remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Japan is to release data on average cash earnings.

St. Louis President James Bullard is to speak at an event at St. Cloud State University.

Canada is to round up the week with its latest employment report.

— Reuters contributed to this report


China hails ‘important progress’ in US trade talks

China’s trade delegation says it made “important progress” in the latest round of talks with the US, China’s state media reports.

At the end of a two-day meeting in Washington, no deal was reached but China pledged to buy more US soybeans.

US President Donald Trump touted the promise as proof that the two sides were making progress.

They are pushing to reach a deal by 1 March to avert an escalation in tariffs.

At a press conference with Vice Premier Liu He on Thursday, President Trump said he hoped to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping to hash out a final agreement by the looming deadline.

“We have made tremendous progress,” President Trump said.

“That doesn’t mean you’re going to have a deal but there’s a tremendous relationship and a warm feeling.”

China also agreed to increase imports of “US agricultural products, energy products, industrial manufactured goods and service products” during the talks, Xinhua reported.

Is this progress?

The two sides are racing to come up with a trade deal by 1 March, or the US has said it will increase tariff rates on $200bn (£152bn) worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.

US trade negotiators agreed to visit China for more discussions in mid-February, Chinese state media reported.

In December, the two countries agreed to 90 days of negotiations, in an effort to defuse their escalating trade war, which had led to new tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of goods.

Soybean pledge

Shortly after the truce took effect, China – by far the world’s biggest importer of soybeans – bought 1.13 million tonnes of the crop from the U.S

The White House said on Thursday the country had agreed to purchase an additional 5 million tonnes of soybeans.

Soybeans have been at the forefront of the negotiations as US farmers have suffered from the sudden loss of their largest customer.

The country imported more than 30 million tonnes of soybeans from the US in 2017 – a figure that dropped sharply last year amid the trade war.

What China wants

China’s state media has painted these talks as “progress” based on the offer of measures or reforms that China wants to see or needs.

These are not concessions, but steps that are in line with reform and opening up already planned by President Xi.

What politicians call the retail takeaway – in this case it literally is one – of buying more soybeans from American farmers went down well with President Trump.

That’s the idea. China would probably like a deal with the President Trump. Just the President.

A deal that the lead US negotiator, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, will sign off on is likely to involve verifiable, structural changes to the economy.

China is far less likely to concede that.

China would rather simply buy more soybeans and other goods or services to help President Trump fulfil his campaign pledge to deal with the trade imbalance between the two countries.

What happens next?

Mr Lighthizer said he was focused on securing a enforceable deal. He warned that many issues remained unresolved.

The US pressed for changes on intellectual property laws and rules that limit the operations of foreign companies in China, both of which have been key sticking points in negotiations.

The two sides “attached great importance to the issues of intellectual property protection and technology transfer and agreed to further strengthen cooperation”, according to Xinhua.

“We’ve made progress,” Mr Lighthizer said.

“At this point, it’s impossible for me to predict success but we are in a place that, if things work, it could happen.”


Two thirds of UK adults don’t have a will in place

Studies have shown that nearly two thirds of UK adults have not prepared a Will. Meaning possessions, money, property and even dependent children could be left with someone you have not chosen

Macmillan Cancer support, who conducted the study, has found that a shocking 42% of people over 55 don’t have a Will in place.

Furthermore, a poll suggested that 1.5 million British citizens may have unwittingly made their Will null and void by getting married as marriage automatically revokes a Will made prior to the nuptials.

One in ten people with Wills have acknowledged that they are planning to update their Wills to include children and grandchildren, but are yet to get round to it.

Several other possible errors were found to be common:

  • The Will still includes an ex-partner.
  • A new partner is not added to the Will.
  • Leaving in someone you “planned to remove”

Official guidance recommends that people review their Will every five years and after any major life changes, but a quarter of Wills have not been updated for at least five years.

Previous research from Macmillan found that people’s top reasons for not having a Will included them having “just never got round to it”, as well as the belief that they don’t have anything valuable to leave and that they don’t need to write one until they’re older.

This can be particularly important where:

  • you share a property with someone who is not your husband, wife or civil partner;
  • you wish to make provision for a dependant who is unable to care for themselves;
  • there are several family members who may make a claim on the Will, for example, a second wife or children from a first marriage;
  • your permanent home is not in the United Kingdom;
  • you are concerned about the possible impact of care fees;
  • Inheritance Tax could potentially be an issue for your estate;
  • you are a resident in the UK but there is overseas property involved; and
  • there is a business involved.

Pension Advice Vouchers

Did you know you could claim salary sacrifice on up to £500 per annum spent on pension advice?

Launched in November 2017, the pension advice voucher scheme is a government initiative to encourage employees to seek good quality pension advice. The scheme is backed by HMRC and is similar to that of the child care voucher or cycle to work scheme. It would be deemed a non-taxable benefit in kind.

To make use of the tax saving you would need to sacrifice up to £500 of your pay in return for the pension advice voucher. The voucher can then be used on the purchase of pension advice; this can be used on your personal pension planning or related to your workplace scheme.

Your tax bracket will determine how much the pension advice voucher actually costs you, by saving on income tax and national insurance.

A £500 pension advice voucher could cost the following:

Basic rate tax payer: £340
Higher rate tax payer: £290
Higher earners caught in the tax trap between
£100,000 – £123,000 = £190
Additional rate tax payers: £265

The only provider of the voucher so far is VouchedFor. There has been a slow take up in the scheme. We believe this could be due to a lack of communication, the off putting administrative burden and lastly the potential concern for employer’s that their employee may seek bad advice.

However you are free to choose your financial adviser, this is not selected by the employer. Therefore you can use Finer Wealth and we are here to help.

Below we have broken down the actions required:

1)Employee agrees to sacrifice up to £500 of salary (which would have been taxed).

2)Pension advice vouchers confirm with the adviser that the employee has paid for pension advice, or is committed to.

3)Employer approves request and transfers funds via Pension Advice Vouchers (which is not taxable).

Employers can register here:
https://pensionadvicevouchers.co.uk/employers
Employees can register here:
https://pensionadvicevouchers.co.uk/employees
Result:

Employees pay less for pension advice via the tax saving.

Note: Finer Wealth is happy to use this voucher towards future adviser fees. Please get in touch with us if in receipt of a pension advice voucher.


When Trump Tweets, The World Trades!

he social-networking platform Twitter has revolutionised the way in which individuals interact with one another. Through the distribution of content via a 280-character micro-blog (known as a “tweet”), users can report news items, advertise their wares or simply poke fun at the controversial issue of the day. In the United States, Twitter has exploded in popularity among political figures. It has become a necessary part of public life, with the sitting president and nearly every member of Congress actively participating. Many attribute its ascent within the political arena to be a product of former President Barack Obama’s groundbreaking use during his administration.

Every time current US president, Donald Trump, tweets, it has an impact on the international market. An untimely tweet or offhand comment may have a large impact upon intraday volatilities facing futures, equities or Forex markets. As a general rule, financial markets are not receptive to surprises and uncertainty – however, Twitter has the ability to supply both, periodically spiking short-term volatilities facing a wide variety of openly traded financial instruments.

Trump’s impact on the market was on full display earlier this year when even powerhouse, Amazon’s shares went down by 5.1% at one point in time. It is because of the jaw-dropping speed at which certain stock moves in response to Trump’s tweets that some sophisticated traders are using an algorithm that instantly captures Trump’s Twitter remarks and then immediately buy or sell the affected stocks. Others have opted to ride it out as the trend seems to be that the market value amost always recovers – often within the trading day.

So the moral of this story is…Beware presidents bearing tweets

2018-07-26